Season in Review: Will Graves

This past year, we finally saw some of that sharp shooter rumor that had followed Will Graves around since he arrived on campus. Graves started at the three spot all year except for a handful of games where he was injured. The issues that followed him last year and ended up getting him suspended, didn't rear their head and haunt him this year. Graves had some monster games for the Heels this year where he was launching threes and draining them. Graves was even a great team player by playing the four spot at times this year when the Heels were a little thin in the post or when they went small, therefore showing off his versatility.

What I didn't like:

1. Inconsistency. As mentioned above, Graves did have some monster games this past year. In the NIT final against Dayton, Graves had 25 points, but he also had a three game stretch against BC, GA Tech, and NC State where he only totaled 16 points in those three games. If you look at the stats, this pattern happened quite often. Graves, as a senior needs to step up and be more consistent for the baby Heels.

2. Defense. Graves hasn't. been exceptional on the defensive end. He just needs to buckle down and start defending, especially since he will be needed to play some in the four spot again this year.

What I liked:

1. Shooting. Graves was one of the few Tar Heels who could stretch the opposing defense with the three point shot. Although I would like his consistency to improve, he did shoot at a 37% clip, but it seemed when he had his good nights, he was unstoppable and then when he had his bad nights, he wasn't a threat at all, which would explain the inconsistency.

2. Rebounding. Despite his size, Graves isn't a bad rebounder. He gets 5 a game and that was only in 25 minutes. He only had 1 double-double, but had quite a few 8 and 9 rebound games. Granted, he had to rebound because the Heels got thin in the post as the season progressed, but he did a commendable job and proved that he's just not a shooter.

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Will Graves is going to be the leader of this team, which is scary, but I hope he can pull through for this year's team. Although he doesn't need to be the leading scorer (I think Harrison Barnes will inherit that), he does need to be consistent for the Heels. I'm not sure if Graves will even start next year, but he needs to accept his role and perform that role to the best of his abilities.

Wear Twins are Out

So, David and Travis Wear decided they didn’t want to be Tar Heels anymore. Looking at the big picture for their two roles, I can’t say that they were going to be more than role players anyway, but they could have done some shocking. I feel the ceiling had already peaked with them and they weren’t going to get much better, but they did surprise me with how much playing time they actually received throughout the year.

They are heading back west, which I’m sure is hard on twins being away from their family, but where they go doesn’t really matter to me because now we have no frontcourt depth. We’re looking at Tyler Zeller and John Henson as the bigs and Will Graves playing the 4 occasionally. With Harrison Barnes coming in, I feel he could play the 4 occasionally, but the need for another big man is very pressing right now.

Coach Williams has been on the recruiting trail a bit, trying to find some unsigned big man, who can fit the system. The hard part is though you don’t want to just throw a scholarship to a player who has the ability of Byron Sanders. North Carolina actually had a player named Justin Knox visit recently and according to Knox’s uncle, was offered a scholarship by UNC. This is a potentially good situation we could be in if Knox does sign because he only had one year of eligibility left. He played 3 years for Alabama and finished his degree in 3, so he can transfer and still play in the 2010-2011 season because of being a graduate transfer. If he does sign, you don’t lose a potential scholarship player in the future because he’s only a one year rental. It looks like a win-win for everybody. Knox is also visiting Georgia Tech.

Knox isn’t going to wow anyone, but he does seem to fit the system and could really be a big help because we have no frontcourt depth and can’t afford a timely Tyler Zeller injury again. Knox was interested in going to another SEC school, but Alabama said no way, Jose’. We’ll see how this situation plays out.

Addition by Subtration

One of the biggest offseason questions will be whether or not Ed Davis does go pro. At the beginning of this year, I would have said that was a bad idea, but that’s when I thought Ed Davis was going to be an 18 and 11 guy every night. Since Davis was not like that and then was injured, I’m not convinced he would be willing to stick around and risk another injury. Most mock drafts have him as a top 10 pick. In fact, I can’t think of one that doesn’t have him as a top 10 pick.

If Davis did leave, I don’t think it would be the end of the world. In fact, I think this team would be better for a few reasons:

1) I don’t think Davis is a true team player. He doesn’t strike me as a team oriented guy. Not to say that he is a selfish guy who demands the ball all the time, but that fact that he doesn’t seem to put a lot of work into his game and that can hurt team chemistry because people see that he doesn’t work very hard and is still getting playing time. Ed Davis is a talent, but it seems like he is Ty Lawson as a freshman, where Lawson was not allowed to start because he kept messing around. Ed Davis is not a trickster like Lawson, but he just seems to not put the effort in, similar to how Lawson was, when he just got by on talent and not being a complete player.

2) If Davis leaves, I think that would open the door for Tyler Zeller to emerge as a main threat on offense. Zeller is obviously more offensive minded than Davis, but with John Henson on the weak side, Zeller could probably get away with more than he normally could because of Henson’s shot blocking ability. I was very impressed with Zeller as he came back from injury and really picked up where he left off. He was good for 9 points and 5 boards a night, which is good as your 6th man and I think if he starts, those numbers are only going to go up with more minutes and shot opportunities.

3. With Davis gone, the line-up would probably be Zeller at center, Henson at the power forward, Harrison Barnes at the other forward, with Will Graves, Dexter Strickland, Larry Drew II, or Kendall Marshall in the backcourt (which will probably remain a question mark until we get closer to the season. But the front court would still be strong with the 2 above bigs and the Wear twins playing the backup role. I believe if we needed to go small, Barnes could slide over to the 4 because of his height.

This is all speculation at this point, but if Davis does opt for the NBA, I don’t consider it a huge loss and the pieces will fall back into place soon enough. My honest hope is that he does go pro, but we’ll see what happens.

That One Stung

I thought they were going to win. I had my title all picked out. It was going to read "That's what I'm talking about." It just felt like they were going to win, despite the Mr. Hyde first half, the Dr. Jekyll second half comeback seemed like it was made for this team.

The team played with a sense of urgency in the second half. If they could play like that for a whole game, instead of one half, we could be sitting at 14-4 instead of 12-6. So far this season, every chance to become optimistic is resulted with another poor performance and another reason to remain down in the dumps about this team. I still believe that this team can turn things around, but sometimes I need to see it in order to believe it too. I'm not seeing it. I see glimpses, but not enough to put it together. Not enough ownership; not enough leadership; not enough urgency.

Will Graves played the game of his life and we finally see the shooting that we have heard about for a number of years. I hope it can continue.

If it's any consolation, last year's team was 1-2 in the ACC, beginning with 2 opening losses, so it's possible. But reality is that last year's team won the NCAA Tournament, which is highly unlikely at this point. Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, and Marcus Ginyard said they wanted to have their own championship ring, but most of their actions suggest otherwise.

Go Team

Well, we are guarteend not to go winless in ACC play now. Virginia Tech is a tough team and they may not be Top 25, but they have played North Carolina tough lately. I did have my doubts, especially thinking we wouldn't have Marcus Ginyard and possibily without Will Graves and Leslie McDonald. But they all played and I think it's a good thing because they don't have too many games together.

Hopefully this game can be a confidence builder for the team. the crowd was good and I thought the team looked good for the most part. I thought the team was patient against the Va Tech zone, moving the ball around and looking for the open man instead of forcing shots. Some balanced scoring to fill up the box score. Ed Davis continues to impress and do well. He needs to stay another year for my sake. Team him and Harrison Barnes together....oh golly.

Defense looked pretty good too and the team really clamped down on Malcolm Deleaney in the second half. And we threw 4 different defenders at him. That might be what we need to do in order to prevent these scoring guards from having big nights. We'll see.

Execution

We lack it. Hardcore. Very hardcore. Marcus Ginyard and Will Graves certainly would have helped in the C of C game, but they were held out and though the hill was a little steeper to climb, North Carolina should not have lost this game. But they did and there is no use crying over it now. It's a loss and we can get over it and move on. It is however a little tough because we exepcted so much more from this team by now.

We thought Ed Davis would be awesome and he has been. That dunk he threw down after the little pump fake was pretty nasty. Marcus Ginyard was supposed to be David Noel II and he hasn't been quite that good. He has been better than the Marcus of old, at least on the offensive end, but I'm not quite sold on defense. But I would have rather taken his defense on Goudelock than Deon Thompson, but obviously that's not how the basketball world wanted it. Larry Drew II has been better than most expected, but still has mental lapses and bad judgement and John, Henson, who was supposed to be Kevin Durant, has done nothing but block shots. We were over-hyped to begin with, and it's coming into play now. I wouldn't say we were losing to College of Charlestown over-hyped, but that's why they play the game.

What this loss comes down to is a lack of leadership and execution. Coach Williams pinned the leadership aspect on himself and maybe part of that is true, but the team was down two upperclassman starters. Logic dictates that someone else speaks up or steps up. From the execution side of the argument, they are a young team and are trying to worry about the right plays and defensive sets, let alone late game clock management. They simply haven't practiced it much and when looking at this game on the schedule, the coaches probably figured they wouldn't need to worry about practicing these types of situations right now against this caliber of a team. Well, lesson learned.

I'm not blaming this on any one individual, but the team and I'm just not sure what to think anymore. The lofty expectations seemed achievable and some of these goals are still out there, but I hope these young players know that in ACC play, you have to bring it every night or you're going to walk out of the gym with the C of C loss feeling a lot. Go Heels! Please!

Carolina Catch-Up

Sorry, wanted to do some posts last week, but other responsibilities limited me to do this and now I'm paying the price because I can't find something I wanted to comment on. It was from Tar Heel Blue and one thought from the article that stuck out to me was the fact that North Carolina will be searching for a go-to-guy this year.

Last year's team had 3 players, who we knew could take over the game at any time. Tyler Hansbrough was the returning scorer; we knew Wayne Ellington could get hot from 3 land and start filling up the box score; and there was Ty Lawson, who was faster than a lighting bug. This year, we have Marcus Ginyard, a fifth year senior, but has never been called to carry a team. Deon Thompson returns after averaging a respectable 10.6 points per game last, but never really showed the ability to take over a game. Ed Davis had a few double digit games, but nothing that makes you think that he is going to throw down 20 and 12 every night. Tyler Zeller scored 17 points in his debut, but was never the same after missing so many games. And Will Graves is Will Graves. I have been relying on the fact that this year's team will probably be very balanced in scoring, but the fact of the matter is that we will need someone who can take over games in crunch time. My feeling is that it will be one of the seniors, who is asked to put on their big-boy shoes in late game situations. Remember in the 06-07 season, that team was also very young with a few upperclassman and that team struggled to close out games, which often ended up costing them in the end. Hopefully a repeat will not happen this year.

North Carolina has played in two exhibition games this year, but the first one was a secret one, which is some NCAA rule that I don't quite understand. The first was against Vanderbilt and was described as ugly. The second was against Belmont Abbey and you can read the recap here. If you look at the box score, you'll see that Thompson had 23 points, so he could be considered the go-to guy, right? Well, UNC had a superior height advantage with no one from Belmont over 6'8", but I highly doubt that Thompson will always go 11-12 from the field. I don't want to take a lot of things from this scrimmage because it is just a glorified practice as Roy Williams said about the Vandy game, but a few things stick out. The Wear twins looked good in their minutes. The rebounding margin was great, but it should be for as tall as we are. The block shots are amazing, particularly John Henson. Marcus Ginyard didn't have a great game, but filled up the box score, so it appears he is ready to be a do-all. Larry Drew had 8 assists, which I like, but the three turnovers need to be eliminated. Hopefully they were just lazy passes that can easily be corrected, because once the competitions kicks up, Drew must handle the ball with great poise.

The good news is that the defense is there and that should improve all year, we just might not see as many games in the 100's as we have grown accustomed to seeing.

Season starts tomorrow!!

Check This

Holy lots of information. I was checking out some of the Tar Heel sites today and came across this one from Tar Heel Fan Blog. It's from some observers who watch practice after Roy's Coaching Clinic and there is a ton of analysis about the current Tar Heel team. I'll post the whole piece below and then have some comments about it.


A work in progress.

Those are the words from Roy Williams himself. After spending two practices watching the Tar Heels, I would agree. Let’s just say that it’s a good thing the Final Four isn’t any time soon. This team has a chance to be very, very good. Up front, they’re huge. And they all run. And they all handle the ball extremely well. And…….you get the picture. I’ll elaborate more on the personnel in a bit, but the strength of this year’s team will be the 6 guys in the front court. If those six play well, UNC could have a terrific year.

Going in to this season, there are some assumptions I think we’re all making. First, shooting the ball will be a problem. Second, it’s unclear how effective Larry Drew will be as the starting point guard. Third, while Deon Thompson has shown nice promise as a low post threat, the Tar Heels will have to develop a true replacement for Tyler Hansbrough on offense. Fourth, despite their youth the Heels look to be a good defensive team.

Before going in to specifics, here a few overall observations. Marcus Ginyard looks good. Defensively, he’s everywhere. He’s tone, he’s lost a little weight, and he can really guard the ball. The five rookies are all no-nonsense guys. They all take basketball seriously and it shows. Roy Williams is catering to Will Graves (I’ll elaborate in a bit). Larry Drew has the tools to be a top-flight point guard, but his experience level is so low that his maturation may take a while (like, the whole season).

So, after a sort of pessimistic start to this email let’s talk about some things UNC will be good at this year. Rebounding should be a major plus for the Heels. The Big 6 and Ginyard will be a formidable board group (these six consist of Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller, and freshmen John Henson, David Wear, and Travis Wear). More importantly, the Tar Heel coaching staff is emphasizing crashing the glass. During the sessions of the clinic on Saturday, both Roy and C.B. McGrath talked about how critical rebounding will be to UNC’s success. The other clear advantage Carolina will have over virtually every team it plays this year may come as a surprise. The Heels should be the best ball-handling team on the floor every night. Typically a young team will kick the ball all over the gym for a while. In 2005, I was almost depressed leaving the clinic weekend after watching Bobby Frasor, Danny Green, Hansbrough, and Ginyard throw the ball in to the third row for two days. Thankfully I didn’t have to suffer through the same thing this year.

Ok, let’s dive in to some specifics. The best place to start is with the new offense that Roy is installing. Let me say that again. The University of North Carolina Men ’s basketball team is going to use an offense it has never used in my lifetime (or before, I imagine). The genesis of this new offense came a few weeks ago during the staff’s annual retreat. Each year the basketball staff gets out of the office just before practice starts to discuss the upcoming season. This year’s retreat focused on trying to figure out what to do with all the new bodies. Answer: They have no idea (this is almost the exact quote from Roy ). But, one thing that came out of the retreat was the realization that there are no proven low post scorers on this team. Sure, Ed Davis could be awesome. And Deon Thompson could come on big-time. Tyler Zeller may be improved too. But none of those guys is Hansbrough. It was the most glaring issue I saw in the two practices – a slew of big guys who can’t finish in traffic. Hansbrough made his living carrying people to the bucket, and then to the foul line. To paraphrase a line from Rick Pitino, Tyler Hansbrough ain’t walking through that door. Somehow, some way, Carolina is going to have to get consistent production from it’s stable of big guys.

Roy and his staff figure the best way to do that is to play to the strength of its post players. Without question, the greatest strength of this group is their ability to handle the basketball. So, when you have good ball-handling post guys what do you do? You let them handle the ball. And that’s exactly what Roy is going to do with the new offense. Instead of trying to slam the ball in to the post to players that aren’t able to finish with defenders draped all over them, he’s going to bring those big guys out away from the basket. In the new offense – which is still driven by Carolina ’s age-old motion offense principles – the post guys will start at the foul line extended. The three perimeter players will be in roughly the same places they have been. The goal is to open up the lane to allow cutters and drivers. This should create fantastic passing opportunities for UNC’s big folks. In particular, the Wears, Zeller and Henson are superb passers. Henson and the Wears are equally as good off the dribble too. Frankly, it was stunning to see the Wears handle the ball like guards. Those are two big dudes, but they can really handle the rock. They aren’t going to blow past any guards or win any Cousy awards, but I doubt there are any big guys in the country who pass and dribble as effectively as they do.

A hidden benefit of the new “open” offense (that’s its name) is the offensive rebounding advantage it should give the Heels. It’s one thing for the defense to check out a guy in limited space near or under the goal. It’s an entirely different thing for a defensive big to have to guard away from the bucket and then turn to box out 15 feet from where the ball will end up. Most big guys will just turn and follow the ball, giving no thought to putting a body on Carolina ’s bigs. For Davis , Henson, and the Wears (especially the Wears) that will be trouble for the opposition.
Another plus for the new offense centers on the ability of UNC’s big guys to knock down the mid-range jumper. Henson, Zeller, and David Wear are extremely good shooters near the foul line. In fact, David Wear could be a huge threat from 3 if he’s left alone. That big boy can really shoot. If he’s open, he’s gonna knock down a slew of 3’s. As you can probably tell, I’m a big fan of this type of offense. Larry Drew should thrive. He won’t have to be depended on to feed the post. Instead, he can concentrate on what he does best – drive and dish. If Drew had to run a set play each time down it would be a long year for all of us. Clearly, Roy has figured that out too.
It’s not a definite (according to Roy ) that the Heels will stick with this new offense. But, my gut is that he likes it enough already to keep it. They worked on it both days in practice and the players very much like being able to operate with increased space through the lane. So what wonderful things will this offense bring? I would get used to seeing lots of face-up jumpers by post guys, lots of drive-and-dish buckets, and (hopefully) lots of follow slams. What you aren’t likely to see too much of is what we’ve been used to during Roy’s tenure in Chapel Hill – traditional post baskets from a traditional post feed, and early three-point shots created by the secondary break.

The elephant in the room, of course, is the whole “can they shoot?” question. The answer to that depends on who’s shooting and where they’re shooting from. Just to eliminate the suspense – this is a poor perimeter shooting squad. There is no way to candy-coat it – they just can’t shoot. The Heels went about 30 minutes of practice time – both days – without making a jump shot of any kind. Ugly is a word that comes to mind. I guess the best way to say it is that this team is, and will continue to be, offensively challenged at times. The one guy who can shoot is a bit of a head-case – Will Graves. But as with Rasheed Wallace, Vince Carter, Rashad McCants, and Danny Green, the Heels have managed to win a lot of games with head-cases. Unfortunately, Graves is no where near the player those guys were. Yet, amazingly, Roy has him in the starting lineup right now. I have to be honest – I don’t get it. Graves looks improved, but not that much improved. But Roy talked at some length about not giving up on players. He said that while most days he feels like “punching Will Graves in the face with his ring”, he isn’t going to give up on him. Roy even went as far as to say he’s trying to give Graves more confidence. Well, I would think making Graves a starter would accomplish that in spades. The reality, though, is that Graves is not a starter. He just doesn’t bring enough to the table. Defensively, he’s a liability. He doesn’t rebound well (and he should given his size and strength), he doesn’t handle the ball well, and he lacks the savvy of most of the other players. The one thing he can do, and do well at times, is shoot the 3. But he’s no Danny or Wayne. He’s a good reserve to have, but a starter? I don’t think so.

Aside from watching the new offense, two other things were fantastic to watch. First, this could be a special team defensively. To be fair, some of the poor shooting I saw was the result of some good defense. Guys are there on every catch, there were very few blow-bys, and most of the rotations were sound. Given the fact that these were practices 7 and 8, it was remarkable that they would be so sound defensively. Sure, there is a ton of teaching going on and they don’t do everything perfectly on every pass or drive. But, they get after it. After what we’ve seen the last three years, it was refreshing to see a team really go hard on defense. Even Roy had to comment on the lack of defense in previous seasons, specifically last year. When asked by a high school coach how you motivate players, Roy used last year’s gang as an example of needing the players to believe in the importance of what you’re teaching in order for the motivation to kick in. According to Roy , he could sense that his guys just didn’t think they needed to play much D last year. No matter how much he talked about it, they just “stunk”…..until the NCAA tournament. Then, the motivation kicked in and defense mattered. Consequently, Carolina obliterated the field. This year I doubt Roy will have to cajole his team in to playing defense. Last year’s team was the most efficient offensive group I’ve seen in more than 30 years of watching Carolina basketball. This year’s team? Not so much. So…I bet Roy has their attention when he preaches defense. Given what I saw this weekend, I know he does.

Second, I was blown away by just how smart the rookies are. All five of them possess well above average basketball IQ. The best example of this is the lack of making the same mistake repeatedly. I’ll reference the ’05-‘06 group again. That year, they all made the same mistake time after time (after time after time….and they was a fairly smart bunch). This year, all Roy had to do was make the correction and keep moving. There is no way to overstate just how valuable this will be to the Heels as the year progresses. I watched the rookies get on the floor as a group and run through six options of the secondary break, and do it flawlessly. To be able to do this during the FIRST week of practice is incredible. To underscore this a bit more, after the first practice of the year Dexter Strickland came up to Roy and asked how he did and what he needed to work on. Roy was caught off guard, “I’m worried about whether he’ll have his pants on the right way, and he’s asking me what he needs to work on”. I promise you, Ty Lawson and Danny Green weren’t thinking about what they needed to work on after their first practices.
With that, here are player break-downs (beginning with the starters):

Larry Drew – He’s improved, that much is clear. But he’s not a good shooter. He’ll make a few 3’s, but he won’t make many. I think his biggest issue right now is his need to show that he’s the man. If he’ll just blend in he’ll be fine. He showed good ability to get in the lane, and he can finish. As I mentioned above, his best asset is his knack for getting in to the lane and finding the right guy at the right time. I was pleased with one thing: He didn’t turn it over much, and never above the key (where it almost always leads to a layup on the other end). Larry’s real value will come with the pressure he can put on the other team’s guards. He still struggles a bit off the ball, but on the ball he can be a menace.

Marcus Ginyard – Marcus is the same old Marcus. This is both good and bad. Defensively, he’s a beast. He’s good off the ball, he’s a terror when he’s guarding you, and he crashes the glass with authority. I’d be shocked if he isn’t the defensive player of the year in the ACC. Offensively he’s got a ways to go, sadly. He really has no jumper. You can tell he’s worked on it, but you can also tell he’s not all that confident in it. He is, however, a much improved ball-handler. Not that he was ever bad, but he is much more comfortable with the ball in his hands than he ever has been. Technically, he’s the third point guard. But I would not be shocked to see him at PG in late game situations.

Will Graves – (Shaking my head). Part of me understands what Roy is doing here. The Heels need a three point threat, they need an experienced perimeter player, and Graves is one of the few Tar Heels that can score with a defender hanging on him. But..but..but….Graves is just not the answer. Henson or Leslie McDonald are much better options. What scares me is that historically Roy doesn’t change his lineup once the season begins. If Graves starts the first game there is a better than 50-50 chance he’ll be there all year. That worries me.

Deon Thompson – Two good practices. Deon has picked it up a great deal on the glass. And that is no small feat given who he’s competing against for every rebound. He’s in fantastic shape, and his hands have improved too. He still has trouble scoring in traffic, but he has no trouble operating one-on-one away from the basket. The new offense suits him.

Tyler Zeller – You’re reading this correctly – Zeller instead of Davis .. I think this one is temporary. Davis is not in great shape right now, and he had two lackluster practices. Zeller was equally unimpressive too. He is bigger and stronger though, which is a big plus for him. And he can shoot (one of the few Heels that can). But Davis is better, and the whole world knows it. From what I could tell, Roy is sending Ed a subtle message.

Ed Davis – So, how do you follow-up a stellar NCAA tournament that culminated in a clutch title performance? By being demoted. Again, this is going to be temporary. Davis has a better face-up game now, and he’s just as imposing as a shot-blocker as he was last year. By all accounts, Ed has never been a great practice guy. But when the lights come on he’s a monster. Still, he’ll need to pick it up a bit over the next week or so.

John Henson – Big-time player. I could go through a bunch of “Wow” moments with Henson, but there are two that stand out. On two separate occasions he was matched up with a true guard and had to defend them on the perimeter (Ginyard and Graves ). Each time, Henson stripped them both. Stunning, very stunning. Henson is a playmaker, pure and simple. He’ll block a shot, make a steal, attack the glass, or make a fantastic hi-lo feed to create and easy basket. His skill set is wide. If he doesn’t start over Will Graves I’ll be disappointed. Based on what I saw, he’s already earned it. If he does, no one will be able to handle him – he’s a 6’9 guy with the reach of a 7’1 guy, and the skills of a 6’3 guy. Big-time player indeed.

Dexter Strickland – Dex was moving slow. And that’s to be expected. He’s the back-up point guard and he’s trying to learn a lot. Still, he’s a big-time player too. The thing with Strickland – and I noticed this last year when I saw him play in high school – is that he just doesn’t screw up. He doesn’t turn it over, he doesn’t take bad shots, and he doesn’t get beat on defense. And athletically he’s in the near-freak range. His speed, quickness, and “want to” make him a superior defender even as a freshman. His shot can be good, but I’m not sure he’ll be ready to fire until he can get a little more comfortable mentally. Given how smart he is, though, my money says he gets comfortable pretty quick.

Leslie McDonald – Along with the Wears, McDonald was the nicest surprise. Leslie is Marcus Ginyard with solid offensive skills. He can shoot it decently, he can slash with effectiveness, and does a nice job of finishing in traffic. Defensively he can play too. He’s built like Jackie Manuel, and at times I thought Jackie was running around out on the floor. He’s going to get minutes at the 2 and 3. I like this guy a lot.

David and Travis Wear – I debated on whether to separate these guys in this section. No need – they play almost exactly alike. Which is to say, they’re both really good. I can’t get over how skilled they are with the ball in their hands. At 6’9, you’d think they would not be comfortable on the perimeter. Not so. They are going create a bunch of matchup problems for just about every team UNC plays. David is the better shooter, Travis is the better defender. Both of them are willing to bang. If a team wants to press the Heels, there is no doubt these guys will be in the game.

Justin Watts – Justin has really improved. He has a decent shot and he’s not afraid to stick his nose in on defense and on the glass. For a 12th man, Watts is fantastic.

Normally I wouldn’t mention the walk-ons too much. But I have to say, this year’s group is exceptional. Marc Campbell is now a senior and he’s not bad. He has good quickness and knows exactly what to do. The star of this group is a guy they call T.P. (settle down…it’s not that funny). This dude is fast, fast, fast. He had several moments where you had to check his number to make sure it wasn’t Strickland or Drew. If he’s in at the end of some blow-outs he’s going to get some steals and run-outs. With Campbell , Watts , and T.P, the last 2-3 minutes of the run-away wins are going to be fun. Those three guys can flat-out play, and there are two other guys who are pretty good too. I’d say that this is the best group of walk-ons I’ve ever seen at UNC in all my years of going to this clinic.

Time to sum up. This year’s team thinks it can be good. In fact, Roy was all over them during the two days. He wouldn’t be that way if he wasn’t convinced that they could be good too. The Heels must find a way to create offense from defense. The good news is that this shouldn’t be a problem. The perimeter defenders are awfully good. More importantly, with Zeller, Henson, and Davis protecting the basket, the opposition will have a hard time getting easy baskets in the half-court. Some teams may think this is the year to run with the Carolina . That would be a mistake.

Ultimately, UNC is going to see a bunch of zone. Both practices included zone offense segments, which is early for Roy . The Heels don’t need to knock down a bunch of 3’s, but they need one or two a half to go down. Otherwise, the lane will be full of defenders. “Open” will help, but not as much as a timely 3 here and there.

The schedule is not kind to UNC early. There are a ton of tough games right out of the gate. If the Heels can survive and get to January, they’ll be very difficult to beat. As long as Larry Drew is not exposed, and assuming they figure out how to make a jump shot, it’s not far-fetched to believe the Tar Heels could wind up in Indy. Again, the post players will carry this team. If that group will rebound and defend, things will be fine. Best case, 27-4 in the regular season. Worst case, 23-8. Somewhere in between is likely. If you really want to be an optimist, if the Heels manage to make four or five 3’s a game (they averaged just under 7 a game last year, Kenny I had this one wrong), they’ll lose very rarely.

Settle in quick. The season starts two weeks from Monday. Hallelujah.



Yeah, like I said a lot of information. First thought is why is Graves starting over Henson? When I come across situations where I think Roy does not know what he is doing, I remind myself that the guy has won nearly 600 games and has two championship rings. I have won ZERO games and ZERO championships. I really would like Henson to start, but what I like and what Roy likes are obviously different things and I know Williams has his reason for doing so. One fact to keep in mind is that this was early on in the practice schedule, so maybe Williams wanted experience (be it little). Another thought is that Graves would do better over starting rather than coming off the bench. I feel this is just an excuse for players. I know Rashad McCants used it before when playing for North Carolina, but that's my opinion. Even one more thought is the fact that Graves could theoretically stretch the defense farther out and open up more space for the bigs down low, but with the new offense that seems to be in place, I'm not sure if that matters as much.

Secondly, the offense may struggle finding shooters, but isn't one of the traits of a Roy Williams-coached team is the fast break? Plus, if the defense is better, they should be able to force more turnovers, thus leading to easy buckets, right?

Thirdly, if the rookies have as smart of an IQ as the writer stated they did, then hopefully the learning curve throughout the season will be slimmer. I am especially impressed with the Wear twins because I didn't think they would see a lot of minutes - not to say that they are going to get 15 minutes per game, but I really didn't think they would see the floor much at all, and figured one of them could possibly red-shirt because of the plethera of bigs, but it seems they can contribute, so please, let the contributions come forth.

Fourthly, hallelujiah, the season starts Monday and we will see what happens.

Late Night Optimism and Concern

Late Night with Roy has come and gone, and now the season is officially under-way! Hooray! I'm pretty pumped about the upcoming season and I'm sure you are too. For some Late Night festivities, go here to ACC Now and it gives some summaries of what went on, as well as Scout. Scout also has an excellent photo gallery and Tar Heel Blue has not one, but two.

From what I gather, the scrimmage between the White and Blue teams was competitive, but still not a scrimmage and might as well be a pick-up game for as often as those players have played against each other since class has started. But it looks like John Henson is as good as advertised. He had 10 points in the scrimmage and here's what Marcus Ginyard said about him:

"That size and athleticism is just one of those things that's tough to describe; he’s a guy who can do some interesting things out there. We’ve got to let it play out and see what he does, but there’s no question he can be a big help to the team."

That's what I like hearing. I can't wait to see this guy throwing down on Duke a few times a game. He's just a freak of athleticism, which is something that will certainly help out this year quite a bit.

Two concerns that Roy Williams has had is the backcourt - with it's lack of experience and depth, and shooting - with every reliable shooter gone now, but with Will Graves scoring 12 points, including three 3's, he may have answered the question of who is the best shooter for this year's team, a question that Tar Heel Blue asked and discussed in their recent article. In that article, Ginyard is asked who the best shooter is and he said that he would put himself up there. Now, knowing Ginyard as a shooter, that's a bit of a red flag for me. With that said, I have no doubt that he has improved on his shooting, just like Larry Drew and Ed Davis. But Graves is the guy who needs to be the best shooter because that's all we as fans have heard about is his shooting and unfortunately, we haven't seen it in the games. I believe we will this year.

Top 5 Most Important Players

So I have thought and thought and thought about this and I really still don't know. I know my top two are set in stone and there is no way I'm going to change it. Probably my top three are not going to change. So here it is.

5. Leslie McDonald/Dexter Strickland. Yes, I put two players here because one of them will be starting at shooting guard, most likely, and both of them will be given some ball handling responsibilities because Larry Drew cannot play 40 minutes. Also both of these players are important because they will be needed to fill in the void from behind the arc, left by the draftees and graduates. It's very important they these two guards can handle the ball well enough to not have Larry Drew playing 37 minutes a game, mainly because I don't think Drew could handle that many minutes over the course of the season, and shoot the ball well. If these two could hit at 33% or around there, that would be awesome. I thought about throwing Will Graves in here at #5, because he's such a wild card, but I'm thinking that Graves could be the Danny Green spark plug off the bench this upcoming year.

4. Ed Davis. So I put who the scouts have as the best player on the Tar Heels roster at #4. Yes, yes I did. Because I think there are three other players who are more important that Davis, maybe not necessarily better than Davis. But Davis will be important. I think his defensive presence is going to be more important than his offensive presence, but I will take both. His ability to block and alter shots is something that North Carolina has lacked the last few years and he can turn them around. His rebounding is automatic-Sam Perkins style. If Davis goes out and gets 12 and 9, with 2 blocks, I'd be happy, but I think he'll do better than that.

I will reveal the other three over the next few days.

Repeat?

Well, with the absence of college basketball comes the hype of the next season. Personally, I'm so bored without college basketball. I hate this time of year because there is no good basketball on. I do not like staying up to all hours of the night watching the NBA players dribble down the shot clock and then throw up a shot. Yes, they are good players, but when a playoff tournament comes down to a seven game series, and then another one, and then another one, I'm not going to watch.

So Andy Katz comes through for me with an article about North Carolina. He seems to be thinking repeat. Ok, not quite, but he says if UNC has any chance to repeat, they need good play from Larry Drew II, Ed Davis, and Marcus Ginyard. I'd go a step farther and say we need good play from everyone, but yes, he is correct that those three players are going to be keys to next year's team.

If you ask me if North Carolina will repeat next year (go ahead and ask), I will say that I do not think they will. There are just too many variables to a season. What would happen if Ed Davis got hurt, or perhaps more importantly Larry Drew? Face it, we are a little thin at point guard. We can't afford a sprained ankle or a bad toe for anyone.

Here's what Roy has said about Drew:

"I just think he's good, and I think he's a quarterback first," said Williams of Drew. "I think he tries to get people the ball, and he's going to be fine defensively. He can do a lot better job on how important he takes care of the ball because he's following a guy who's probably the best I've had doing that. Larry has got to be able to push it at a fast pace and still not turn it over."

I believe this is an accurate statement, if Drew can keep the turnovers down, he should be fine. I was impressed with the way he played in the ACC tournament. He's not the scorer that Lawson is, but he doesn't have to be. He needs to get people involved and that's what I like in a point guard is a pass-first point guard. He didn't get a ton of time this year playing behind Lawson, but he will next year and that will increase his confidence. He is the starting point guard next year, because there is no way in high Heaven we are getting John Wall (For the record, I don't want him anymore anyway).

With Davis, everyone and my own mother knows what Davis can do next year and will have to do. He made a good decision and will not have any regrets with another year.

Ginyard is going to be huge next year because if he had played this year and graduated, we're talking about Will Graves being our main perimeter weapon. Here's what Roy said about Ginyard:

"Let's put it this way, if I didn't have Marcus on the perimeter, I'd be scared to death -- and you can put that in capital letters … SCARED TO DEATH," Williams said. "He can play the 2, that's his natural position, and he can play the 3 and he can play the 1 in a pinch for us, and he's been there and he's been in involved in big games and tough practices. He can get those guys to understand what's going on."

Yeah, I have to agree with Williams about being scared to death, as mentioned above, Will Graves would be the main perimeter weapon. This sounds an awful lot like David Noel, which has also been mentioned before about Ginyard. I think he's going to have a lot of fun with this group.

I'm gonna throw out a wild card here and say that Will Graves will play a big role for next year's team as well. We've seen flashes of what he could be - a decent defender and a good shooter - now we need to see it consistently.

I'm looking forward to the title defense. I said earlier that I didn't think North Carolina could repeat, but it certainly doesn't mean they won't. I think they should win the ACC regular season. My feelings are mixed on the ACC tournament, and in the NCAA tournament, I believe the Sweet 16 is possible, but so is the Final Four. You never know and we won't know until we start watching this team. How many days is it before Late Night?

Season in Review: Will Graves

Where to start with young William? First, I’m going to say this about Will Graves. I have seen in chat sites where everyone bashes him and on and on. But in response to that, I believe that Will Graves is better than Reyshawn Terry was at his sophomore season. Yes, true, Graves did redshirt, so he’s technically a junior, but actually playing the college game he was a sophomore. If you compare stats of Terry’s and Graves’s sophomore seasons, you will find out that Graves has averaged more minutes (arguably on a more talented team) and points. Here’s the comparison:

Graves: 11.2 Mins, 4.0 points, 2.6 boards, .8 assists, 1.2 TO’s, 44% FG, 89% FT, 28% 3FG
Terry: 4.5 Mins, 2.3 points, .7 boards, .2 assists, .5 TO’s, 54% FG, 69% FT, 60% 3FG

So other than a bad three-point percentage, I would give Graves the edge over Terry. But that being said, Terry played his junior year and Graves may not. Remember what Roy Williams said when Graves was suspended:

“He will remain a part of our program and participate in practice and all other team activities. His status for 2009-2010 will be determined prior to next season.”

So we may not see Graves next year, but I highly doubt that. Coach Williams is a firm believer in character and though Graves obviously did something to merit a suspension, I’m sure he learned from this and won’t do it again. As to what he did exactly, I’m not going to speculate. I think Graves will be a key contributor next year.

Things I didn’t like:
1. Obviously, the suspension hurt our depth at wing and guard. It would also have been nice for him to get some more experience, in light of the departures of upperclassman. When he was suspended though, he said he wanted to do everything he could to help his teammates and I think he did.

2. The 3 point percentage. He was 10 of 36 in 20 games, but when he came to UNC, he was known as a shooter and it just wasn’t there this year. I do believe he will improve and understand that this was the first year with the extended 3 point line.

Things I liked:
1. Contributing. With the loss of Marcus Ginyard, the minutes were there for the taking and in the beginning of the season, Graves took advantage of it. He had several good contributions and did end up playing some big minutes against Wake Forest (the only challenge game that he played in). I would look at him mostly as a scorer right now, but he does a good job rebounding and I think his defense is pretty good.

2. Defense. With playing 11 minutes per game, Graves sometimes played in garbage time, but in the two losses, he played in, he played 14 against BC and 12 against Wake. I know the Wake game was close (even though Wake was dominated), but he wasn’t on the court for just offense; he played solid defense and I think since last year, his defense has improved the most.

I think Graves will be a big help next year, and the year after that and I think he could qualify for the David Noel or Reyshawn Terry-type player by the time he is done at UNC. Don’t get down on him too much; he has greatly improved since his arrival and I am excited to watch his progression.

Update: With the thought that Will Graves might not play next year, I am 95% convinced he will now based on what Roy has said in the press conference that Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson had:

"You're talking about two of the greatest kids I've ever coached, as basketball players and as people. So I'm going to miss them immensely off the court and definitely on the court. It'll be a huge challenge for other people, they've got to step up. Larry Drew's got to step up, Will Graves, Justin Watts, Marcus, all of those guys have to step up. We're probably thinner on the perimeter than any team I've ever had in terms of people who have done it. "

So I take it Will Graves will be playing next year.